Interview with U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen

By Kevin Zimmerman, Senior Editor

It's uncommon to hear high-ranking government officials talking about customer data, let alone predictive analytics. But according to former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen, customer data is playing an increasingly important role in the public sector.

Now chairman and CEO of international business consulting firm The Cohen Group, the longtime politician (three terms each as a U.S. Representative and Senator from Maine) delivered a keynote address at the recent SPSS Directions conference in Orlando, after which he sat down for an exclusive interview with 1to1 to discuss the potential opportunities the government can harness using data.

Cohen, a Republican who served as President Clinton's Secretary of Defense, related predictive analytics to governmental applications and issues. Noting that by its nature, predictive analytics requires the capture of ever-more customer information for ever-more relevant results, he argues that analytics could be put in place to detect and prevent dissidents from taking destructive action. "If you learn that somebody's taking flying lessons but is not interested in how to take off or land, that might get your attention," he says. "Then if you add in the fact that he's of Islamic heritage, it adds another level. If you then find that he belongs to a mosque whose leader takes a very hard-line, anti-U.S. stance, it adds even more levels."

But government could also use predictive analytics to improve common procedures like airport security. Using himself as an example, he says he is not above the annoyances that most people face day to day. Due to medical implants, he is routinely stopped at airport security checkpoints; a situation that could be avoided with the right data. He believes that "allocating our resources accordingly, whether its iris scans, fingerprint files, or travel records, to factor in probability and working up predictions" would "save a lot of wasted effort" at airports and elsewhere.

What about privacy?

As for the privacy issue, Cohen says controls must be enforced. "I think most people agree, at least in principle, that wiretapping by the U.S. government on someone who may pose a real threat to this country is all right," he says. "But if someone like [SPSS president] Jack [Noonan] takes a call from someone in Pakistan or Malaysia inquiring about business, and it turns out that the person has ties to some radical group, is it right that Jack then becomes part of a watch list?"

He suggests that regular reviews by an independent court might work best to keep the wiretap program running smoothly, though he cautions he's well aware of how politics can get in the way almost anywhere.

Data integration on every level
As coauthor of the 1996 Klinger-Cohen Act, which requires a structured and detailed IT capital investment planning and accountability process for federal agencies, Cohen remains a staunch proponent of information sharing within firms. "That act came about in part because in 1987, the IRS said its field agents needed new laptops -- and it took until 1993 to get them," he says. "That was a direct result of systems not talking to each other."

A more notable failure of systems' non-communication came in the wake of 9/11, when the disconnect between the FBI and CIA became well-known. "That's something they're still working on," he says. "By putting both agencies under Homeland Security, you now have 180,000 employees under one roof. Each agency has its own budget and viewpoint, and streamlining the process takes time."

Data is good; in-person is better
For all the possibilities that technology offers, Cohen remains firm in his belief that nothing can substitute for human interaction, whether it's on the showroom floor or the world stage.

"A lot of people still think of camel races when they think about most of the Persian Gulf countries," he says. "You need to go and see what's really taking place there. In places like Qatar and Dubai, especially Abu Dhabi, there is enormous wealth being generated, tremendous economic development. But politically, they're all very fragile."

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin may be "reconstituting the power of the Soviet Union," Cohen says, "but he's also restored pride to the people. That's going to continue to be an important place to watch, just as China and India are."

Regarding a post-Castro Cuba, Cohen believes the potential is practically limitless. "Politics have long held us back there," he says. "But once U.S. business is turned loose in Cuba, it's going to be a much different situation."

As for the U.S. itself, Cohen says another terrorist attack is definitely a matter of "when," not "if," and says that a proper implementation of predictive analytics can serve as an important line of defense. In terms of foreign policy, he calls for "a return to American leadership," by which he says he means "working through diplomacy, not forcing democracy" on other nations.